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LPL Financial Research team discusses current market trends and look ahead, sharing insightful projections on a weekly basis.
24 NOV 2024 · In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, is joined by Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist, as they recap last week’s strong bounce back for stocks, highlight the improving market breadth, and provide some perspective on market concentration. Stocks rose solidly last week, rising all five days. It wasn’t about the mega-caps this week as a broadening out lifted large cap equity benchmarks. The strategists reviewed several charts and discussed how broad participation underpinned the latest breakout to new highs on the S&P 500. They highlight how this rotation has also been evident in small caps but note the current technical evidence does not yet support a shift toward sustainable outperformance of small caps over large caps. Given the uptick in interest rate volatility, they also discuss the technical setup for 10-year Treasury yields, including key support and resistance levels. Next, the strategists provide historical perspective on the high degree of concentration in the stock market today. The shift toward passive investments has been a big reason why. Concentration by itself isn’t a reason for a market correction, but it could amplify an eventual selloff. The strategists wrap up with a preview of the week ahead. Minutes from the November Fed meeting, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, and a big batch of Treasury auctions will keep markets focused on interest rates. Tracking: #663336
18 NOV 2024 · In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, is joined by Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Lawrence Gillum, as they recap last week’s stock market decline, share some perspective on the latest bond market selloff, and highlight some things that may be different with Trump’s trade policy this time around. Stocks fell last week, led down by healthcare and small caps. Markets were held back by rising rates after Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated the Fed was in no hurry to raise rates, while the prospects for RFK Jr. as President-elect Trump’s Healthcare Secretary rattled vaccine makers. Since the September 16 low, the 10-year Treasury yield is higher by over 0.80%. The bulk of the move higher is due to better economic data that has pushed out the need for aggressive rate cuts from the Fed. The strategists believe markets are better aligned with likely Fed cuts so, the bulk of the move higher in bond yields could be behind us. The strategists then put Trump’s tariffs into perspective by looking back at how much of the so-called “tax” was paid by consumers and how much was absorbed by producers and international manufacturers. Tracking: #659651
11 NOV 2024 · In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL strategists recap last week’s post-election surge in stocks, answer some important economic questions investors are asking after Trump’s election victory, and discuss some market implications of last week’s election. Stocks surged last week, led by small caps, as markets reacted to Trump 2.0 by pricing in lower taxes and less regulation. Next the strategists played “ask the economist”, with questions about the Federal Reserve, potential economic policy differences between Trump 1.0 and 2.0, and tariffs. The strategists then discussed some market implications from the election, including bullish seasonality, small cap enthusiasm, and the upward bias in rates. Tracking: #656769
4 NOV 2024 · In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Chief Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder is joined by Chief Global Strategist Quincy Krosby to discuss how the election might impact the stock market, highlight several politically sensitive areas to watch as the votes come in, and preview this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Tracking #653579
27 OCT 2024 · In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL strategists explain the Nasdaq’s seven-week win streak, and what scares them about the markets and economy. Tracking: #650484
22 OCT 2024 · In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Chief Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder and Chief Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum explain why yields and stocks continued higher last week and preview third quarter earnings season. The S&P 500 rose for the sixth straight week last week on solid economic data including better-than-expected gains in retail sales. Small caps and interest rate sensitive sectors outperformed, while precious metals delivered solid gains amid heightened geopolitical risks. Next the strategists preview third quarter earnings season, where the so-called Magnificent Seven will again be a key driver of overall earnings gains. While expectations for earnings growth in the quarter are modest due to tougher comparisons with 2023 and declines in energy sector profits, earnings are poised to accelerate in coming quarters. Still, they expect 2025 estimates to come down some. The strategists then discuss why Treasury yields are higher despite the Fed cutting rates last month. Since the Fed cut rates in September by 0.50%, the 10-year Treasury yield is higher by nearly 0.50% because recent economic data has come in better than expected, reducing the need for the Fed to cut rates aggressively. The strategists wrap up with a preview of the week ahead, including a look at Main Street economies across the U.S. in the Fed’s Beige Book and earnings reports from more than 110 S&P 500 companies. Tracking: #647292
15 OCT 2024 · In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Chief Equity Strategy Jeffrey Buchbinder and LPL Chief Global Strategist Quincy Krosby recap another positive week for stocks with more new highs, celebrate the bull market’s second birthday, and share early reactions to earnings season. The strategists begin by recapping last week’s gains for the S&P 500 — the fifth straight positive week and 45th record high of 2024. Enthusiasm in artificial intelligence got us there, with technology leading the way. The strategists then put this bull market in historical perspective now that it has celebrated its second birthday. If the economy continues to hold up, the odds that this bull makes it to three are good. Last, the strategists react to the strong bank earnings last week before closing with a quick preview of the week ahead. Tracking: #644404
8 OCT 2024 · LPL strategists review another up week for stocks, a record S&P 500 high, September’s jobs report, and key charts for the week ahead. Tracking: # 641401
1 OCT 2024 · In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Financial’s Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, and Chief Economist, Dr. Jeffrey J. Roach, recap another positive week for stocks including more S&P 500 record highs, discuss whether the impact of China’s stimulus moves might be lasting, explain why consumers are in good shape, and preview this week’s jobs report. The S&P 500 has set 42 record highs now after the stock market’s latest rally continued. The strategists highlighted strength in China-sensitive risk assets, including the materials sector and industrial metals, and outperformance of cyclical over defensive sectors. The strategists then discuss the flurry of stimulus announcements in China and the prospects for lasting impact on the growth outlook for the Chinese economy and its markets. After, the strategists walk through several data points to make the case that consumers remain in good shape and have a larger savings buffer than previously believed. Next, the strategists discuss some drivers of rising gold prices and assess prospects for the precious metal going forward. Lastly, the strategists preview the week ahead which includes the important and always much-anticipated monthly jobs report. Job gains below 100 thousand or above 200 thousand would likely be market moving. There are upside risks to the unemployment rate per reports from the Conference Board. LPL Research expects a quarter-point rate cut at each of the next two Fed meetings in November and December. Tracking: #637988
17 SEP 2024 · In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Financial’s Chief Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder and Chief Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum recap the best week of the year for the S&P 500, share some reasons to like municipal bonds, and preview this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Stocks surged last week thanks in large part to Wednesday’s turnaround sparked by artificial intelligence darling NVIDIA (NVDA) and increasing optimism surrounding Fed rate cuts. Next, the strategists discussed how the election outcome could impact municipal bonds. With the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act set to expire in 2025, unless there is legislative action, tax rates could be headed higher, which means municipal bonds may appear more attractive compared with taxable alternatives. Last, the strategists discussed the week ahead when all eyes will of course be on the Federal Reserve and the near-certain first interest rate cut in four years. According to news reports, the Fed is split between a 0.25% cut and 0.50% cut on Wednesday, but the path of rate cuts into 2025 may be more important. Tracking: 630717
LPL Financial Research team discusses current market trends and look ahead, sharing insightful projections on a weekly basis.
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