The arrest of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, a long-time leader of the Sinaloa cartel, has raised concerns among experts about the potential for increased violence and power struggles within the cartel, as well as conflicts with other cartels. Zambada's capture by U.S. authorities in Texas, alongside Joaquín Guzmán López, the son of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, marks a significant blow to the cartel's leadership​.

Experts fear that Zambada's absence could lead to internal fragmentation and power struggles within the Sinaloa cartel. Historically, leadership voids in cartels have often resulted in violent conflicts as factions vie for control. This internal strife could spill over into regions where the cartel operates, such as Sonora and Chihuahua, potentially leading to escalated violence in these areas.

Additionally, the arrest may trigger conflicts with rival cartels, particularly the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), which is already in competition with the Sinaloa cartel for control over lucrative drug trafficking routes. The power vacuum created by Zambada's arrest could invite attempts by rival cartels to expand their influence, further exacerbating violence in contested regions.

Moreover, the potential for increased narcoterrorism and attacks on civilians, police, and journalists is high, as rival factions and cartels may use terror tactics to assert dominance and control​. This period of instability is seen as particularly dangerous given the impending presidential elections in Mexico and the United States, which may influence the dynamics of cartel violence and law enforcement responses.


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source:

The Sinaloa Cartel after ‘El Mayo’ Zambada: Mexico fears outbreak of violence after arrest of drug lord | International | EL PAÍS English (elpais.com)